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IEAPER/14

Indonesian Coal Prospects to 2010

AUTHOR: Lindsay Jolly, Charles Millsteed and Roger Stuart
DATE: November 1994
PAGES: 38

ABSTRACT:
The latest in the series of Perspectives reports from IEA Coal Research assesses the prospects for Indonesian coal demand and production to the year 2010.

Indonesia's coal prospects over the period to 2010 are analysed in this report. The significance for world coal markets of Indonesia's future coal supply prospects is explained before the economic and policy factors determining Indonesia's future energy balance are reviewed. Indonesia's coal production prospects and supply infrastructure plans to the year 2000 are then assessed. A projection of future coal demand is established using the government's official plans. Key uncertainties about future coal demand are identified and assessed, particularly the extent to which the government is likely to achieve its planned role for coal in the power generation sector. International demand for Indonesia's coals is also evaluated. Indonesia's exportable surplus of coal to the year 2000 is then projected by comparing projected coal production and consumption levels. Export prospects to the year 2010 are considered in terms of the economic and technical feasibility of using Indonesia's vast reserves of lower quality coals to satisfy the projected rapidly growing domestic demand. Use of Indonesia's lower quality coals would allow exports of the higher quality coals to continue.

Despite uncertainties about both supply and demand, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to rise steadily through the remainder of this decade to reach around 35 Mt/y. However, even if no export quality bituminous coal is used to meet domestic needs, exports next decade are not likely to increase beyond 45 Mt/y because of the limited size of Indonesia's higher quality coal reserves.