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IEAPER/11

Chinese Coal Prospects to 2010

AUTHOR: Martin Daniel
DATE: June 1994
PAGES: 35

ABSTRACT:
The latest in the series of Perspectives reports from IEA Coal Research assesses the prospects for Chinese coal demand, production, imports and exports to the year 2010.

Over the past sixteen years Chinese coal production has more than doubled--fueling the country's spectacular economic growth. China is now the world's leading coal producer, and is dependent on coal for three-quarters of its total energy requirements.

The report begins by assessing the likely impact of trends in population and economic growth, and of changes in fuel prices, on energy and electricity needs. The potential for fuels other than coal to meet these needs is analysed, and a projection of future coal demand established. Subsequent chapters of the report assess whether the projected coal demand can in fact be met. Changes in the structure, pricing and cost of Chinese coal production are analysed. So too are infrastructural constraints on coal transport and utilisation. The potential for coal imports and exports, and the environmental implications of likely developments in coal production and use, are also covered.

The report concludes that the projected coal demand could in theory be met. However, a significant part of the demand may need to be met by imports. Moreover, meeting the projected demand would require annual capital investment in coal production, transportation and utilisation facilities approaching 10% of Chinese gross national product--a formidable target.

This report will prove indispensable to policy makers and analysts in government and industry. It will be of particular value to those assessing developments in the power generation, mining and heavy industrial sectors of one of the world's most dynamic markets.