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IEAPER/02

Seaborne Steam Coal Trade--Demand Prospects to 2000

AUTHOR: Martin Daniel
DATE: August 1992
PAGES: 21

ABSTRACT:
The second in the series of Perspectives from IEA Coal Research describes the prospects for searborne coal trade clearly and concisely in 21 pages.

The report assesses world demand for seaborne traded steam coal up to 2000. After a brief discussion of past trends, the study considers the main factors which will determine the growth in demand in the 1990s. The prospects are then considered on a country-by-country basis within each market sector. Particular attention is paid to demand in the power station, cement, and iron and steel (pulverised coal injection) sectors.

The report concludes that, in the most likely outcome, demand for seaborne traded steam coal will rise by over 6%/y to 341 million tons in 2000. Power station demand will account for much of the growth, reaching three-quarters of total demand in that year. On a regional basis the rapid growth in Asian demand of the 1980s will continue, with the region accounting for almost half of world demand in 2000--much of the coal being consumed in newly constructed capacity. European demand will also increase, but by a less predictable amount, and in large part as a result of the substitution of indigenous supply.