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China's Potential in International Coal Trade

AUTHOR: Guy Doyle
DATE: October 1987

China is today a minor league coal exporter, accounting for only 3% of total international coal trade in 1986. For example, it exported less than the Federal Republic of Germany. However, China has recently overtaken the US to become the world's largest coal producer. The prospects of very rapid economic growth, coupled with the declared intention to continue to open up the economy has led western analysts to question whether China's coal exports will continue to be only a small contributor to world coal markets. This report reviews the coal supply and demand prospects in China and assesses the ability and willingness of China to increase her coal exports.

Chapter 2---brief survey of the Chinese coal industry, including main historical trends and technical and political constraints.

Chapter 3---main factors affecting coal production prospects-availability of capital and labour.

Chapter 4---coal transport infrastructure and how it affects coal supply prospects.

Chapter 5---current internal coal demand and factors influencing energy demand.

Chapter 6---China's energy and trade strategy and willingness to export.

Chapter 7---factors affecting foreign willingness to accept Chinese coal and some tentative demand projections.

Chapter 8---conclusions that assess China's likely impact in the international coal market.