Prospects for coal and clean coal technologies in Indonesia
AUTHOR: Paul Baruya
DATE: June 2009
Indonesia has become the largest exporter of steam coal in the world, but the long-term future of coal exports is being brought into question as domestic demand is projected to grow by a significant amount, from 40â€“50 Mt/y in 2007 to more than 100 Mt/y by 2013, and even higher beyond 2013.
Exports reached 200â to 210 Mt in 2008, and are set to rise in the future. Import volumes are negligible, while indigenous production was estimated to be around 240 to 260 Mt in 2008. Illegal mining is being addressed and in the past could have accounted for at least 20 Mt/y of production, but obtaining reliable export and production figures as a result is therefore not straightforward.
Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world. This fact coupled with robust GDP growth means there is more pressure on the state-controlled electricity industry to invest in, and build, adequate infrastructure to meet the rising demand for power. Part of this investment is being driven by government policy to build 10 GWe of coal-fired power by 2010 and a second tranche by 2013. However, the investment programme, commonly known as the crash programme is more likely to be delayed by 2 to 3 years. Nevertheless, the likely 20 to 30 Mt/y or so of additional coal demand from the first tranche alone will put pressure on domestic coal producers to meet expanding demand both at home and abroad for low rank and exportable bituminous coals.
This report covers four main topics, the Indonesian coal industry, the power generating sector and its use of clean coal technology, changes in coal demand and its impact on international trade, and finally a brief look at upgrading low rank coals within the country.